[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Continue to Rebound on November 25, Probability of Interest Rate Cut in December Is Expected to Rise Significantly

SMM Nickel November 25 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) US Fed—① Governor Waller: Since the Fed's last meeting, existing data show relatively small changes; inflation is not a major problem. I am concerned about the labour market, and I advocate for an interest rate cut in December. ② Fed's Daly: The job market may deteriorate suddenly, supporting an interest rate cut in December.

(2) Central bank announcement: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on November 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding method, with a maturity of one year.

Spot Market:

On November 25, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 116,200-120,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 118,550 yuan/mt, up 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,300-4,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 4,450 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 100-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) closed at 116,100 yuan/mt in the night session, up 0.69%. Gains expanded in the morning session, with prices rising further; as of the midday close, it was reported at 116,320 yuan/mt, up 0.88%.

The US Fed released dovish signals: Market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut in December surged significantly, jumping from 40% last week to 75%. Meanwhile, nickel prices found temporary technical support after consecutive declines, with both LME and SHFE prices rebounding. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with long-term pressure remaining. The price range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is projected at 114,000-118,000 yuan/mt.